Using Game Theory to Combat Poachers

Rangers and poachers are constantly fighting a cat and mouse game. The poachers trying to set snares to capture sought after animals, and the rangers attempting to apprehend them. After numerous unsuccessful attempts to combat this behavior, the Indian government, with the help of the University of Southern California, developed the Protection Assistant for Wildlife Security (PAWS). The goal of PAWS is to determine patrolling routes to increase the effectiveness of the anti-poaching. To do this, PAWS uses a mixture of artificial intelligence and game theory. This is a great application for game theory, as there is a clearly defined adversarial relationship; the poachers are constantly switching up their routes, trying to evade the conservationists and the conservationists are trying to stay one step ahead of the poachers. Using previous poacher and ranger activity, along with animal population data, map data, and many other constraints, PAWS creates a model of the poachers’ behavior. Exploratory PAWS patrols have lead to almost double the number of average human sightings, demonstrating the clear predictive power of the algorithm.

Source: https://www.analyticsindiamag.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/PAWS.png

I like this example because it highlights how applicable game theory is to many real world situations. We are constantly bombarded with these sorts of adversarial relationships and this article inspires me to search for places in my life where I could use this understanding to more effectively respond to the situation. From modelling competition in the marketplace, soldiers on the front line, to poachers, game theory, no doubt, deserves all of the accolades it has received.

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Using Social Network Analysis to Preemptively Offer Support to Likely Re-Offenders

As one of the most violent cities in the USA, Kansas City realized that it needed to take a different approach to solving it’s crime problem. So, under new government, the Kansas City No Violence Alliance (aka KC NoVA) was created. KC NoVA decided to approach the problem from a network perspective and made the following assumptions:

  1. People with friends who have committed crimes, are more likely to commit crimes
  2. The closer you are to violence, the more likely you are to be a victim of it
  3. Violence is concentrated among groups of people

The first and third assumptions in particular highlight Granovetter’s model of networks, with violent crime primarily occurring in these highly connected clusters of people.

Using these assumptions, their first order of business was to graph the relationships between the gang members.

A graph of the Dime Block gang network.

The connections between people are determined based off of a multitude of different metrics such as traffic stops, arrests, informants information, street intelligence, and more. Using real world information in combination with analysis of the graph, they were able to determine the key players in the gang.

The size of each circle represents the betweenness of that individual. The red nodes are people who, at the time the graph was created, had warrants out for their arrest.

Taking into account whether the individual was on probation or parole, and their betweenness on the graph, police selected two people from each group to reach out to. They warned the individual about violence, and offered targeted support for education, employment, anger management, etc. This method allowed the city to efficiently allocate it’s limited law enforcement resources, and was successful, leading to the number of homicides dropping by more than a quarter next year.

What stood out to me about this article was the proactive approach to crime reduction. Rather than simply reacting to crime, the city was getting out in front of it, not only saving the lives of the would be victims, but also that of the perpetrator. It is truly a win-win scenario and highlights the practical implications of some of the more nebulous concepts of graph theory.

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